It is one of the four variables included in the economic projections of Federal Reserve Board members and Bank presidents for every other Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
As with many economic statistics, GDP estimates are released with a lag whose timing can be important for policymakers. "Powell even noted at the end of this week's meeting that the SEP readings should be viewed cautiously. The final date in the bottom chart shows the forecast errors of the final GDPNow projections of the BEA's first estimates of real GDP growth and the subcomponent contributions to growth.Release times shown are from the original source. One participant did not submit longer-run projections for the change in real GDP, the unemployment rate, or the federal funds rate in conjunction with the December 10–11, 2019, meeting, and one participant did not submit such … Federal Reserve officials indicated they expected the economic recovery from the pandemic-induced recession would be a slow one, with rates near zero for years.
Our policy is not to comment on or interpret any differences between the forecasts of these two models.These charts show how the forecasted GDP subcomponent contributions to growth aggregate up to GDPNow's real GDP growth forecast for each update day in a particular forecast quarter and how changes in the subcomponent contribution forecasts aggregate up to changes in the GDP growth forecasts. We want to hear from you.Sign up for free newsletters and get more CNBC delivered to your inboxGet this delivered to your inbox, and more info about our products and services. When the number of projections is even, the median is the average of the two middle projections.The range and central tendency for each variable in each projection period are depicted in "box and whiskers" format. Besides a dynamic factor model, GDPNow uses several other econometric techniques, including "bridge equations" and Bayesian vector autoregressions, to nowcast the subcomponents of GDP. That said, the forecasting error can still be substantial just prior to the “advance” GDP estimate release. The initial GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2020 is
The Overall, these accuracy metrics do not give compelling evidence that the model is more accurate than professional forecasters. FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ATLANTA JULY 27, 2020 Atlanta Fed GDPNow Estimate for 2020: Q2 Note: The Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate is a model-based projection not subject to judgmental adjustments.
Other private forecasters use similar approaches to “The BEA’s advance estimates of the subcomponents of GDP use publicly released data from the U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, and other sources. Because so much was unknown, the Fed declined to provide the quarterly summary at its main March policy meeting but elected to do so this week even with abundant questions about the future. All rights reserved.
Whenever a user hovers the cursor over a bar in one of the charts, the pop-up box displays the data releases for the date of the bar as well the numerical values for the GDP growth forecast and either the levels or changes in the subcomponent contribution forecasts.
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