KUALA LUMPUR (Nikkei Markets) -- The World Bank Monday trimmed its forecast for Malaysia's economic growth in 2020 to 4.5% from October's estimate of The Finance Ministry has revised down its GDP projection for 2020 to an 8.5-per-cent contraction and will launch additional measures to boost tourism. In line with the projected improvement in global growth, the Malaysian economy is expected to register a positive recovery in 2021,” BNM said.© All rights reserved. MIDF Research lowers Malaysia 2020 GDP growth forecast to 1pc Monday, 13 Apr 2020 11:42 AM MYT Malaysia’s gross domestic product (GDP) has been lowered to one per cent from 2.7 per cent, anticipating the first half 2020 (1H 2020) data to be more precarious than before.
This page provides the latest reported value for - Malaysia GDP per capita - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. In a statement today, MARC said although trade diversion arising from trade tensions between the US and China could marginally benefit Malaysia … "When these containment measures are eased and the domestic MCO (movement control order) is lifted, economic activity is expected to gradually improve in 2H20. The Malaysian government has continuously imposed the MCO in various phases since March 18, with the latest phase — the recovery movement control order (RMCO) phase expected to last until August 31. These restrictions will adversely affect private consumption and investment along with external trade performances,” it said in a note today.Nevertheless, MIDF Research expected recovery in 2H 2020 as fears from Covid-19 subsides.Overall, the economic growth will be influenced by various internal and external factors, including disruption in global production and consumption following Covid-19, recession fears, global financial stability, oil price war, inflationary pressure and labour market performance, it said.“We remain cautious that if the pandemic lasts until year-end, the economy will contract,” it added.On private investment, the research house anticipated it to fall by six per cent year-on-year (y-o-y) for 2020 versus 1.5 per cent y-o-y in 2019, weighed by weak demand and business sentiments.As Covid-19 and the US-China trade war continued to threaten external trade performance, the research house forecast both exports and imports growth of Malaysia to contract further in 2020.Exports growth is expected to contract -7.2 per cent year-on-year (y-o-y) from -1.7 per cent y-o-y in 2019, while imports growth to contract -6.7 per cent y-o-y in 2020 versus -3.5 per cent y-o-y in the previous year, it said.“Covid-19 is disrupting global supply chain resulting from lower Chinese and Asian factory output,” it said.On the mining sector, MIDF Research foresees it to contract further by 2.8 per cent y-o-y from 1.5 per cent y-o-y in a year earlier, as the sector had been influenced by the volatility in commodity prices.While agriculture sector’s growth is expected to experience a slight drop of 0.5 per cent y-o-y, despite higher average price estimated for crude palm oil (CPO) at RM2,450 per tonne (2019: RM2,079 per tonne).“Pressure will be more on the demand side, from India, China and the European Union,” it said.However, MIDF Research noted the government’s additional spending is anticipated to cushion the Malaysian economy from any adverse impacts, thanks to the (RM260 billion) Economic Stimulus Package comprise of one-off cash assistance, digital vouchers, energy discounts, special allowances to front-liners and wage subsidy would increase government consumption.“Therefore, we foresee public consumption to expand higher by six per cent y-o-y for 2020 from two per cent y-o-y in 2019.“Meanwhile, government investment is expected to recover marginally with softer negative growth of -9.7 per cent y-o-y (2019: -10.8 per cent y-o-y) due to mega-projects,” it said.However, the research house cautioned that the fiscal space is likely to be somehow limited by lower crude oil prices.“Furthermore, government’s priority in combating the spread of Covid-19 might delay other public investment activities,” it said.
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